The SCC Leave Project: Predictions for December 19, 2024

Here’s a look at the leave application decisions that the Supreme Court of Canada will be releasing on December 19, 2024.

Each week, we’ll be providing a short blog post that summarizes some of the upcoming cases and gives a prediction of the probability that leave will be granted. These predictions will be based on our proprietary machine learning model and dataset of every leave application decision released by the Supreme Court of Canada from January 1, 2018 onward.

Each week, we’ll group cases into four categories:

  • Cases to Watch – These are cases where our model predicts greater than a 25% chance that leave will be granted. These cases have a much better than average chance that leave will be granted. While this doesn’t mean that all of them will get leave, they are worth watching as strong candidates.
  • Possible Contenders – These are cases where our model predicts between a 5% and 25% chance that leave will be granted. These cases have an average to somewhat above-average chance of getting leave. While most cases in this category won’t get leave, on average, we expect to see a healthy minority of cases in this category being granted leave.
  • Unlikely Contenders – These are cases where our model predicts between a 1% and 5% chance that the case will get leave. The safe bet is against leave being granted in these cases, but we do expect to see it from time to time.
  • Long-Shots – These are cases where our model predicts a less than 1% chance that the case will get leave. Although it will happen from time to time, it would be an outlier for our model for these cases to be granted leave. We will not be providing summaries for these cases.

If this is your first time reading our weekly SCC leave predictions blog, have a look at an explanation and caveats about our model here.

 

THIS WEEK’S CASES

There are 16 leave application decisions coming out on December 19, 2024. Our model only predicts the probabilities of successful leave applications in cases where leave was sought from the Court of Appeal. We will not comment or provide a prediction on cases where leave was sought directly from a Superior Court decision or on cases in which we are involved. That leaves 14 cases in which we’ll give a prediction.

You can find a detailed summary of all of the cases that are up for leave decisions this week here.

 

Possible Contenders

His Majesty the King v Steve Tremblay

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a 22% chance of getting leave.

Farhad Maslehati v His Majesty the King

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a 15% chance of getting leave.

Zardev Inc v Joseph J Dydzak

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has an 11% chance of getting leave.

Lieutenant Governor in Council of British Columbia v Canada Mink Breeders Association

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a 10% chance of getting leave.

Steelhead LNG (ASLNG) Ltd v ARC Resources Ltd

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a 9% chance of getting leave.

GSI Global Shelters Developments Ltd v Rural Municipality of Last Mountain Valley No. 250

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a 7% chance of getting leave.

 

Unlikely Contenders

Daniel McAllister v His Majesty the King

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a 2% chance of getting leave.

Alan Croke v VuPoint System Ltd

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a 2% chance of getting leave.

His Majesty the King v Elijah Jacques-Taylor

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a 2% chance of getting leave.

 

Long-Shots

David Baichoo v His Majesty the King

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

Garry Browne (aka Jakim El Bey) v His Majesty the King

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

Andrée Perreault v Geneviève Brassard

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

PL v LS

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

Todd Weber v His Majesty the King

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.