March 5, 2025

The SCC Leave Project: Predictions for March 6, 2025

Here’s a look at the leave application decisions that the Supreme Court of Canada will be releasing on March 6, 2025. 

Each week, we’ll be providing a short blog post that summarizes some of the upcoming cases and gives a prediction of the probability that leave will be granted. These predictions will be based on our proprietary machine learning model and dataset of every leave application decision released by the Supreme Court of Canada from January 1, 2018 onward.

Each week, we’ll group cases into four categories:

  • Cases to Watch – These are cases where our model predicts greater than a 25% chance that leave will be granted. These cases have a much better than average chance that leave will be granted. While this doesn’t mean that all of them will get leave, they are worth watching as strong candidates.
  • Possible Contenders – These are cases where our model predicts between a 5% and 25% chance that leave will be granted. These cases have an average to somewhat above-average chance of getting leave. While most cases in this category won’t get leave, on average, we expect to see a healthy minority of cases in this category being granted leave.
  • Unlikely Contenders – These are cases where our model predicts between a 1% and 5% chance that the case will get leave. The safe bet is against leave being granted in these cases, but we do expect to see it from time to time.
  • Long-Shots – These are cases where our model predicts a less than 1% chance that the case will get leave. Although it will happen from time to time, it would be an outlier for our model for these cases to be granted leave. We will not be providing summaries for these cases.

If this is your first time reading our weekly SCC leave predictions blog, have a look at an explanation and caveats about our model here.

 

THIS WEEK’S CASES

There are 26 leave application decisions coming out on March 6, 2025. Our model only predicts the probabilities of successful leave applications in cases where leave was sought from the Court of Appeal. We will not comment or provide a prediction on cases where leave was sought directly from a Superior Court decision or on cases in which we are involved. That leaves 23 cases in which we’ll give a prediction.

You can find a detailed summary of all of the cases that are up for leave decisions this week here.

 

Cases to Watch

His Majesty the King v Alvaro Roche-Garcia

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a 27% chance of getting leave.

Possible Contenders

Marshall Zaitlen v Sean Omar Henry personally and as Estate Trustee for the Estate of Sandy Robinson

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a 19% chance of getting leave.

Jasmin Grandel v Government of Saskatchewan

  •  Our Model’s Prediction: This case has an 18% chance of getting leave.

Provincial Court Judges’ Association of British Columbia v Attorney General of British Columbia

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has an 18% chance of getting leave.

Attorney General of Quebec v Zurich Insurance Company Ltd

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a 14% chance of getting leave.

Synagogue and Jewish Community Centre of Ottawa operating as Soloway Jewish Community Centre, John Doe Inc and Jane Doe Maintenance Inc v Doris Aubin and Aimee Zweig

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a 14% chance of getting leave.

South Coast British Columbia Transportation Authority v GD

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a 14% chance of getting leave.

Megan Walker v Marcel Marcellin

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a 14% chance of getting leave.

Intact Insurance Company v John Laporte o/a Warrior Gear

  •  Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a 12% chance of getting leave.

Municipality of Chelsea v Attorney General of Canada

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has an 11% chance of getting leave.

Rachel Standish, ès qualités de parent et tutrice de l’enfant mineure Y v Isabelle Desbiens, personnellement et ès qualités de parent et tutrice de l’enfant mineur X

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a 10% chance of getting leave.

Javaid Wahabi v His Majesty the King

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a 9% chance of getting leave.

Manuchehr Haroon v His Majesty the King

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a 9% chance of getting leave.

Abdullahi Abdulrehman Mohamed v His Majesty the King

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a 9% chance of getting leave.

Marshall Zaitlen v Sean Omar Henry

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a 6% chance of getting leave.

 

Unlikely Contenders

Isabelle Morin v His Majesty the King

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a 3% chance of getting leave.

Christopher Lawrence Naidu v His Majesty the King

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a 3% chance of getting leave.

Michael Lesage v Attorney General of Ontario

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a 2% chance of getting leave.

Gerard Michael Egan v Harbour Air Seaplanes LLP

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a 2% chance of getting leave.

 

Long-Shots

Ahmad Mohammad v His Majesty the King

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

Ahmad Mohammad v Association for Research in Vision and Ophthalmology

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

Simon Chevalier v His Majesty the King

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

DF v Martin Dussault

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

 AB v ANB

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.