September 16, 2025

The SCC Leave Project: Predictions for September 18, 2025

Here’s a look at the leave application decisions that the Supreme Court of Canada will be releasing on September 18, 2025.

Each week, we’ll be providing a short blog post that summarizes some of the upcoming cases and gives a prediction of the probability that leave will be granted. These predictions will be based on our proprietary machine learning model and dataset of every leave application decision released by the Supreme Court of Canada from January 1, 2018 onward.

Each week, we’ll group cases into four categories:

  • Cases to Watch – These are cases where our model predicts greater than a 25% chance that leave will be granted. These cases have a much better than average chance that leave will be granted. While this doesn’t mean that all of them will get leave, they are worth watching as strong candidates.
  • Possible Contenders – These are cases where our model predicts between a 5% and 25% chance that leave will be granted. These cases have an average to somewhat above-average chance of getting leave. While most cases in this category won’t get leave, on average, we expect to see a healthy minority of cases in this category being granted leave.
  • Unlikely Contenders – These are cases where our model predicts between a 1% and 5% chance that the case will get leave. The safe bet is against leave being granted in these cases, but we do expect to see it from time to time.
  • Long-Shots – These are cases where our model predicts a less than 1% chance that the case will get leave. Although it will happen from time to time, it would be an outlier for our model for these cases to be granted leave. We will not be providing summaries for these cases.

If this is your first time reading our weekly SCC leave predictions blog, have a look at an explanation and caveats about our model here.

 

THIS WEEK’S CASES

There are 32 leave application decisions coming out on September 18, 2025. Our model only predicts the probabilities of successful leave applications in cases where leave was sought from the Court of Appeal. We will not comment or provide a prediction on cases where leave was sought directly from a Superior Court decision or on cases in which we are involved. That leaves 32 cases in which we’ll give a prediction.

You can find a detailed summary of all of the cases that are up for leave decisions this week here.

 

Cases to Watch

Centrale des syndicats démocratiques (CSD) v Procureur général du Québec

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a 50% chance of getting leave.

 

Possible Contenders

His Majesty the King v Karine Rioux

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a 23% chance of getting leave.

The Republic of India v CCDM Holdings, LLC

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a 16% chance of getting leave.

Robert Marcus Hirschfield v His Majesty the King

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a 12% chance of getting leave.

Angela Davidson v His Majesty the King

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a 12% chance of getting leave.

Directrice de la protection de la jeunesse du CIUSSS A (Santé Québec) v A

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has an 11% chance of getting leave.

United Mexican States v Vento Motorcycles

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a 10% chance of getting leave.

René Rock v Conseil de bande de Pessamit

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a 9% chance of getting leave.

Democracy Watch v Ontario Integrity Commissioner

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has an 8% chance of getting leave.

Jaime Enrique Moreno v His Majesty the King

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a 7% chance of getting leave.

Native Alliance of Quebec v Attorney General of Quebec

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a 7% chance of getting leave.

Massimo Siciliano v His Majesty the King

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a 7% chance of getting leave.

Chemtrade Electrochem Inc, formerly known as Canexus Corporation v Superior Plus Corporation

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a 7% chance of getting leave.

 

Unlikely Contenders

Samir Latifi v TDL Group Corp

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a 4% chance of getting leave.

City of Ottawa v ClubLink Corporation ULC

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a 4% chance of getting leave.

ID Inc v Toronto Wholesale Produce Association

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a 4% chance of getting leave.

Chad Brown v Earl Sprague

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a 3% chance of getting leave.

Jena Lynn Hunter v His Majesty the King

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a 3% chance of getting leave.

ID Inc v StrategyCorp. Inc

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a 1% chance of getting leave.

Madison Pacific Properties Inc v His Majesty the King

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a 1% chance of getting leave.

Ville de Laval v Attorney General of Canada

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a 1% chance of getting leave.

 

Long-Shots

Arlette Adjovi Adingni v Ariel Chokki

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

Canada Mining Exchange Company Limited v Zhaojin Mining Industry Co. Ltd

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

Paul Ward v Coralie Murphy

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

Éric Tremblay v Attorney General of Canada

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

Maryam Furney v Steven Hazan

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

Tanya Rebello v His Majesty the King in Right of the Province of Ontario represented by the Ministry of Transportation for the Province of Ontario and the Ministry of Government and Consumer Services for the Province of Ontario

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

Tanya Rebello v His Majesty the King in Right of Ontario as represented by the Attorney General of Ontario

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

James B. Byrne v President of the Canada Border Services Agency

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

Milad Babadi v His Majesty the King

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

Walter L.M. Speckling v Local 76 of the Communications, Energy and Paperworkers' Union of Canada

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

William Imona-Russel v Stephen Zap

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.